SYRIA

The Continued Arab Spring

Presently, Syria is faced with intense internal crisis. In a public address in January, President Assad vowed to deal with perpetrators of violence with an iron-fist. The UN Security Council passed resolution denouncing Syrian government’s attacks on protestors and human rights violations in the country which was vetoed by Russia and China. However, the country is using diplomatic channels to ease down the worsened situation. Syria indeed needs reforms but the way things have worsened over a year it would be difficult for the current regime to convince and satisfy opposition forces and above all the West.

Middle East has a protracted history of inter and intra-state conflicts, roots of which lie in the issues of representation of identities, nationalism, security and economy which are further aggravated by the authoritarianism. Hostility among neighbours, violence and resultant bloodshed has been the enduring features of politics in the region. The region has also been under the influence of some major extra-regional actors: the US, Britain and Russian Federation (formerly Soviet Union).

The year 2010 marked the beginning of what turned out to be a series of uprisings and upheavals against the authoritarian regimes in several countries of the Arab world which is now known as Arab Spring. The uprisings calling for greater political freedom and an end to undemocratic rule in many countries, including Egypt and Libya, eventually led to the demise of long-standing autocratic regimes. Today, the region's politics manifests yet another phase of extreme political instability, violence and bloodshed.

Among other countries, Syria also faced upheaval against more than four decades of suppressive rule of Ba'ath Party,
demanding greater political freedom, democratic reforms and an end to the autocratic regime. Following the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, the movement for change in Syria began in January 2011, which later turned into civilian resistance movement with protests launched in Damascus in March 2011. Gradually, the protestors were organized into several formal groups. Three of the major groups are: Syrian National Council (SNC) that has rejected any dialogue with President Bashar-al-Assad and demanded the abdication of the President. The group is reported to have links with Britain and the US and is operating from Turkey. Another group is National Co-ordination Committee which has called for a dialogue with President Assad as the committee believes that the overthrow of Assad's regime would lead to further chaos and crisis in the country. The third group is Free Syrian Army, which was formed by the defected Syrian soldiers and is launching indiscriminate attacks on Syrian forces.  

For decades now, the country remained under severe criticism due to long-standing authoritarian rule. After the independence in 1946, Syria faced a series of military coups for many years which led to social unrest polarization of the tribal society. The Ba'ath Party seized power in Syria through a coup in 1963 and established its monopoly since then. The longest serving leader from Ba'ath Party was President Hafeez-al-Assad who ruled for almost three decades from 1971–2000. Hafeez-al-Assad had taken over the Presidency following the Corrective Movement in 1970 that was the result of an intra-Ba'ath Party power struggle. President Hafeez-al-Assad's regime, despite the consolidating power after years of unrest and military coups in the country and bringing economic stability, drew international condemnation as well for the suppressive policies towards civilians and human rights violation.

Syria has a rich geographical history and has been home to many great civilizations in the region. The country was also involved in Arab-Israeli conflict. It fought against Israeli forces over Golan Heights during six-day War of 1967 along with Egypt and Jordan. The country was also one of the parties in the Yom Kippur War of 1973. The country is known to have demonstrated strong resistance against Israeli atrocities and policies towards Arab states. However,Hafiz-al-Assad's regime had been detrimental to Damascus' foreign relations with many Arab countries, including Egypt and Turkey.

Syria was labeled as a Rogue State by the United States in 2002 following the incidents of 11 September 2001, and the resultant war against terrorism. The term Rogue States remains controversial as it implies regimes which are authoritarian and highly repressive, supporting terrorism and pursuing weapons of mass destruction from Western perspective and criteria. Since the time Syria was considered one of the six rogue states by the West, the country has been under strict international vigilance. The country was accused of supporting terrorists and fundamentalists giving rise to militarism in the region. It was also criticized for having strong diplomatic and strategic ties with Iran and was alleged to have facilitated arms supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran also faced criticism by the West for supporting Syria financially, diplomatically and militarily. The George W. Bush's administration, on many occasions, tacitly and publicly had indicated that it wanted a regime change in Syria for it was considered a growing threat to regional as well as international peace and security.

In the wake of the crisis that began last year, Assad's regime once again came under severe international pressure. The government was condemned for repressing civilians and launching attacks against pro-democratic forces in the country which essentially are demanding change and an end to Bashar-al-Assad's regime. On the other hand, Syria considered the uprising an internal matter which the country had a right to deal with according to its own policies. United States had already expressed its reservations and had stated that Bashar-al-Assad has lost its legitimacy to rule the country and he must step down.

As the conflict in Syria escalated, the Arab League had proposed a peace plan in November 2011, finding a diplomatic solution to the ongoing crisis that included the end to crackdown by Syrian on protestors and withdrawal of Syrian military presence from cities. Syrian government initially agreed to the plan, however, later on, suggested some minor amendments to the plan calling it necessary to safeguard the sovereignty of Syria. Arab League rejected any amendments to the plan and hence the plan was rejected by Syria. On 22 November 2011, a resolution was passed by the UN General Assembly's Third Committee on Human Rights, which was introduced by Britain, France and Germany calling for an end to prolonged crackdown on protestors by Syrian government and also urged Syrian government to adhere to the Arab League Peace Plan. Later on, Russia had introduced a draft resolution in the UN Security Council in December 2011, that condemned the violence committed by 'all parties' in Syria and heavily emphasized that the draft did not mandate 'any' military intervention in the country.

Syria indeed needs reforms but the way things have worsened over a year, it would be difficult for the current regime to convince and satisfy opposition forces and above all the West.

Presently, Syria is faced with intense internal crisis. In a public address in January, President Assad vowed to deal with perpetrators of violence with an iron-fist. The UN Security Council passed resolution, denouncing Syrian government's attacks on protestors and human rights violations in the country, which was vetoed by Russia and China. Russia has unequivocally declared that the country would veto any resolution demanding the resignation of Bashar-al Assad and would not support sanctions on Syria for they must not carry even a hint of external intervention in Syria. Russian leadership enjoyed decades-long economic and strategic partnership with Syria and Moscow is the key arms supplier to Damascus but the support to Syrian government is rather an outcome of Moscow's domestic considerations. On the other hand, China has also mentioned meticulously that the country views the fresh resolution as against the Charter of the United Nations that heavily stresses upon respecting states' sovereignty. Any outside pressure on Bashar-al-Assad to step down is an intervention in the internal affairs of the country which China did not support. However, the country is using diplomatic channels to ease down the worsened situation. Pakistan, on its part, supported Arab Peace Plan and condemned the use of force and human rights violations by all parties. The government has urged the warring parties to end violence and resolve the crisis through negotiations diplomatically and peacefully.

Syria indeed needs reforms but the way things have worsened over a year, it would be difficult for the current regime to convince and satisfy opposition forces and above all the West. The current regime has weakened from many perspectives and is near to dissolution according to a number of analysts. However, the fall of Assad’s regime will be a testing time for the country as the country will plunge into myriad problems related to groups and political factions that have emerged during the crisis with their own sets of demands and plans. Bringing consensus among all those factions and groups would then pose greater challenges to the country.  

Nabiha Gul is a researcher and analyst of international affairs and visiting faculty member at the Department of International Relations, University of Karachi, Karachi.