An analysis of the pertinent perceptions about the Iranian nuclear programme, the concerns over ?it from different quarters, and what is to come if Iran is attacked.
A state's ability to defend is not a credible deterrence; rather a state's ability to retaliate is a credible deterrence. Kenneth waltz, a renowned theorist, who put forward the theory of Structural Realism, states that the international system is such placed that all the states are sovereign and there is no central authority in the world to regulate the affairs between the states with justice. So the states are in a state of security dilemma against each other. To overcome that security dilemma, the states rely on self-help for their defense. So according to waltz, if a state acquires nuclear weapons, the other state will know that if it attacks the first, the retaliation will be of such a magnitude that the aggressor will hardly bother to avoid it. Waltz says that acquiring the second strike capability will ensure Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), in which both the powers are aware that in a nuclear exchange both will be destroyed; so the nuclear exchange doesn't happen. This MAD prevented the nuclear exchange between U.S and USSR during the cold war because both possessed nuclear weapons.
Israeli Defense forces (IDF) have the potential to strike deep inside Iran. In fact, they also have air refueling capability as they have to strike 1000 miles away from their land. It has precision guided air-to-ground missiles and its planes can target from 1500 nautical miles away.
Sagan, another theorist, puts forward three models to explain the motives for pursuing nuclear weapons. First he considers waltz's security model, second is the norms model which envisages a state's prestige and identity considerations and the third is the domestic politics model, which focuses on the domestic actors who encourage or discourage governments from pursuing the bomb. These actors can be the state's nuclear energy establishment: important units within the professional military which in Iran's case can be the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps that are also banned by the U.S state department. After the fall of Taliban government and the Saddam Hussain government, the direct security threat to Iran has vanished, so there are all reasons to believe that if Iran goes for acquiring nuclear weapons and not just nuclear technology for civil use, then it would be for prestige factor and for its hegemony in the region, Sagan's second model would explain it most appropriately.
IAEA referred Iran to the security council in 2006 , UN security council resolutions are important in this regard because it is this non-compliance of these resolutions that is causing anxiety in the international community, and is isolating Iran. The Security Council till now has passed seven resolutions on Iran, I would discuss them briefly:
Resolution 1696
(31 July 2006) that Iran must stop its uranium enrichment activities, but Iran refused to comply.
Resolution 1737
(23 December 2006) imposed sanctions, cutting off nuclear cooperation and demanding that Iran should cooperate with the IAEA.
Resolution 1747
(24 March 2007) expanded the list of sanctioned Iranian entities.
Resolution 1803 (3 March 2008), imposed bar on exports of nuclear- and missile-related dual-use goods to Iran, and bar on travel of certain individuals of Iran.
Resolution 1835
(27 September 2008) reaffirmed the preceding four resolutions, the only one of the seven not to invoke Chapter VII.
Resolution 1929
(9 June 2010) was the most stringent one which imposed a complete arms embargo on Iran, banned Iran from any activities related to ballistic missiles, , and extended the asset freeze to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL). Most significant is that Russia also voted in favor of it.
Resolution 1984
(8 June 2011) extended for a further 12 months the mandate of the Panel of Experts established by Resolution 1929.
Iran has had a history of relations with IAEA that are marred with distrust since 2003 when a clandestine nuclear program of Iran was revealed, IAEA reported that Iran is acting in breach of NPT that it has signed. Since then IAEA has been complaining of non-cooperation by Iran. In November 2011, IAEA officials identified a "large explosive containment vessel" inside Parchin. The IAEA later assessed that Iran has been conducting experiments to develop nuclear weapons capability. In January this year, the IAEA team returned from Iran by saying that they were not allowed to examine a site that carried military significance increasing the suspicion. IAEA is scheduled to visit Iran on a fresh inspection on 22nd of February. But some diplomats say that Iran will continue with its stonewalling tactics.
IAEA referred Iran to the security council in 2006 , UN security council resolutions are important in this regard because it is this non-compliance of these resolutions that is causing anxiety in the international community, and is isolating Iran. The Security Council till now has passed seven resolutions on Iran, I would discuss them briefly:
Resolution 1696
(31 July 2006) that Iran must stop its uranium enrichment activities, but Iran refused to comply.
Resolution 1737
(23 December 2006) imposed sanctions, cutting off nuclear cooperation and demanding that Iran should cooperate with the IAEA.
Resolution 1747
(24 March 2007) expanded the list of sanctioned Iranian entities.
Resolution 1803 (3 March 2008), imposed bar on exports of nuclear- and missile-related dual-use goods to Iran, and bar on travel of certain individuals of Iran.
Resolution 1835
(27 September 2008) reaffirmed the preceding four resolutions, the only one of the seven not to invoke Chapter VII.
Resolution 1929
(9 June 2010) was the most stringent one which imposed a complete arms embargo on Iran, banned Iran from any activities related to ballistic missiles, , and extended the asset freeze to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL). Most significant is that Russia also voted in favor of it.
Resolution 1984
(8 June 2011) extended for a further 12 months the mandate of the Panel of Experts established by Resolution 1929.
Iran has had a history of relations with IAEA that are marred with distrust since 2003 when a clandestine nuclear program of Iran was revealed, IAEA reported that Iran is acting in breach of NPT that it has signed. Since then IAEA has been complaining of non-cooperation by Iran. In November 2011, IAEA officials identified a "large explosive containment vessel" inside Parchin. The IAEA later assessed that Iran has been conducting experiments to develop nuclear weapons capability. In January this year, the IAEA team returned from Iran by saying that they were not allowed to examine a site that carried military significance increasing the suspicion. IAEA is scheduled to visit Iran on a fresh inspection on 22nd of February. But some diplomats say that Iran will continue with its stonewalling tactics.
The new sanctions that Obama administration enacted are expected to bring immense pressure on Iranian economy. According to US officials this will compel Iran to halt its enrichment programme and come to a negotiating table. This way an eminent Israeli attack on Iran can be forestalled.
Israel does not want a nuclear capable state in the Middle East and Israel possesses 200 nuclear weapons itself. The significant thing is that this fact does not alter Israel's strategy for Iran. Israel maintains that it is not going to accept nuclear deterrence with Iran and is adamant on keeping it from attaining capabilities because Israel views its missile programme with suspicion also. Iran openly supports Palestinian groups, and after the Hamas success in 2006 Palestinian elections, it is supporting their government with huge finances. Iran has allegedly supported Hezbollah, the Lebanese group, in the July-August 2006 crisis with Israel. The US has not undertaken direct business with Iran from the last 30 years. It thinks that Iran, being a theocratic state, is less likely to believe in the concept of mutually assured destruction and the logic of deterrence as in vogue in the West.
Israel as per now seems seriously considering a military option, but it is not making it open as to what weapons and strategies it is likely to use. Israeli Defense forces (IDF) have the potential to strike deep inside Iran. In fact, they also have air refueling capability as they have to strike 1000 miles away from their land. It has precision guided air-to-ground missiles and its planes can target from 1500 nautical miles away. It has an additional advantage that it can employ bombs acquired from the US named GBU-28 which are bunker buster bombs. Israeli navy has a dangerous fleet of six Dolphin class submarines that can carry nukes. Israel can also exploit the regional differences of Iran with other Muslim states, it has demonstrated that in the past when in July 2009, it dispatched its vessels through the Suez Canal, but obviously the situation may have changed due to a regime change in Egypt. The US has its forces stationed in Iraq and Afghanistan and its fighter jet carriers in the Indian sea, all these surround Iran, and in case of hostilities, US has the ability of seriously inflicting harm on Iran.
Israel as per now seems seriously considering a military option, but it is not making it open as to what weapons and strategies it is likely to use. Israeli Defense forces (IDF) have the potential to strike deep inside Iran. In fact, they also have air refueling capability as they have to strike 1000 miles away from their land. It has precision guided air-to-ground missiles and its planes can target from 1500 nautical miles away. It has an additional advantage that it can employ bombs acquired from the US named GBU-28 which are bunker buster bombs. Israeli navy has a dangerous fleet of six Dolphin class submarines that can carry nukes. Israel can also exploit the regional differences of Iran with other Muslim states, it has demonstrated that in the past when in July 2009, it dispatched its vessels through the Suez Canal, but obviously the situation may have changed due to a regime change in Egypt. The US has its forces stationed in Iraq and Afghanistan and its fighter jet carriers in the Indian sea, all these surround Iran, and in case of hostilities, US has the ability of seriously inflicting harm on Iran.
Ships carrying grain to Iran are refusing to unload until the payments are made. The oil exports have significantly dropped and out of 1400 European companies that used to do business with Iran, only 200 are left.
The new sanctions that Obama administration enacted are expected to bring immense pressure on Iranian economy. According to US officials this will compel Iran to halt its enrichment programme and come to a negotiating table. This way an eminent Israeli attack on Iran can be forestalled. This law will give power to the American president to prohibit a foreign bank from operating any account in American Banks, if it is involved in any business with the Iranian central bank. The President will have full power to prevent or put severe restrictions on such banks or accounts. The bill also invests powers in the American President of imposing other sanctions under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act or IEEPA, which will give him the authority to block transactions of assets under US authority. Also to regulate or permit foreign exchange transactions, bank transfers and import or exports of currencies or securities.
As per reports emanating in the international print media, the fresh sanctions are hurting Iran. Iran is contemplating on bartering gold bullion and tanks of oil for essential nutrition elements like grains. Iran used to do oil business through international financial institutions, which the central bank of Iran is now facing difficulty in carrying out.
Ships carrying grain to Iran are refusing to unload until the payments are made. The oil exports have significantly dropped and out of 1400 European companies that used to do business with Iran, only 200 are left. Iranian government has already cut subsidies and the prices of basic commodities have doubled or tripled. Iran's currency has depreciated 40 percent and the Central bank of Iran concedes that inflation has been 20 percent.
Iran's 60 percent of revenue is from oil production, some 2.2 Million Barrels a day and 18 percent of it is bought by the EU countries. EU on 23rd January imposed tough sanctions on Tehran in order to force Tehran to terminate its nuclear programme and come to negotiating table. Russia which stands for solving this issue diplomatically, stated on 14th of February 2012, that decision on Iran is imminent. EU council President Herman Van Rompay discussed this issue on 12th Indian-EU Summit in New Delhi on 10th February 2012. He urged India to use its good offices in bringing Iran on the negotiating table and they think that if India doesn't cooperate with US and EU efforts then it can spoil the game for the world community. India imports $12 Billion worth oil from Iran annually, and the vacuum that the EU trade embargo is making, India is aspiring to fill it but it is under severe US pressure. China was the chief importer of Iranian oil, but it has started to cut oil imports from Iran while Saudi Arabia has shown willingness to cover this gap. The other economic powers of Europe were with the US in pursuing these new sanctions.
As per reports emanating in the international print media, the fresh sanctions are hurting Iran. Iran is contemplating on bartering gold bullion and tanks of oil for essential nutrition elements like grains. Iran used to do oil business through international financial institutions, which the central bank of Iran is now facing difficulty in carrying out.
Ships carrying grain to Iran are refusing to unload until the payments are made. The oil exports have significantly dropped and out of 1400 European companies that used to do business with Iran, only 200 are left. Iranian government has already cut subsidies and the prices of basic commodities have doubled or tripled. Iran's currency has depreciated 40 percent and the Central bank of Iran concedes that inflation has been 20 percent.
Iran's 60 percent of revenue is from oil production, some 2.2 Million Barrels a day and 18 percent of it is bought by the EU countries. EU on 23rd January imposed tough sanctions on Tehran in order to force Tehran to terminate its nuclear programme and come to negotiating table. Russia which stands for solving this issue diplomatically, stated on 14th of February 2012, that decision on Iran is imminent. EU council President Herman Van Rompay discussed this issue on 12th Indian-EU Summit in New Delhi on 10th February 2012. He urged India to use its good offices in bringing Iran on the negotiating table and they think that if India doesn't cooperate with US and EU efforts then it can spoil the game for the world community. India imports $12 Billion worth oil from Iran annually, and the vacuum that the EU trade embargo is making, India is aspiring to fill it but it is under severe US pressure. China was the chief importer of Iranian oil, but it has started to cut oil imports from Iran while Saudi Arabia has shown willingness to cover this gap. The other economic powers of Europe were with the US in pursuing these new sanctions.
India imports $12 Billion worth oil from Iran annually, and the vacuum that the EU trade embargo is making, India is aspiring to fill it but it is under severe US pressure. China was the chief importer of Iranian oil, but it has started to cut oil imports from Iran while Saudi Arabia has shown willingness to cover this gap.
US will win in an operational sense, but it has to consider other problems in this connection. Iran cannot compete with the conventional war fighting capabilities of US or even with that of Israel. But Iran has been contemplating over possible strategies that a weaker state can adopt in an asymmetric warfare, whereas war is being fought between a stronger and a weaker state. Iranian strategists have contemplated on mining the strait of Harmuz, in that case it will take Americans days, if not months to clear the mines in the ocean. In that time the undesirable damage would have been inflicted on the oil consignments passing through it. This would send the oil prices to faltering high rates. The human cost of it will also be immense; the refugee problem that it will ensue will be very difficult to deal with. The worse problem it may create is that of a new generation of Jihadis.
There are fears that if Iran is attacked on the nuclear facilities that are already declared, it will not compel Iran to shun its nuclear energy ambitions, rather Iran may start more covert nuclear programmes and the distrust between the major powers and Iran may deepen further. There is no other way but to settle this issue diplomatically. A nuclear Iran may also not be acceptable to its neighbours and if Iran succeeds in getting the nukes then its neighbors may also strive to get nukes because of security dilemma. But if Iranian nuclear programme is purely for civilian purposes, as the Iranians have maintained, then the countries which can use their good offices must use that and try and bring Iran to a negotiating table. Yet another war in the Middle East will unleash crisis of such magnitude which will be very difficult to be tackled and stability in this region will be a distant dream.
There are fears that if Iran is attacked on the nuclear facilities that are already declared, it will not compel Iran to shun its nuclear energy ambitions, rather Iran may start more covert nuclear programmes and the distrust between the major powers and Iran may deepen further. There is no other way but to settle this issue diplomatically. A nuclear Iran may also not be acceptable to its neighbours and if Iran succeeds in getting the nukes then its neighbors may also strive to get nukes because of security dilemma. But if Iranian nuclear programme is purely for civilian purposes, as the Iranians have maintained, then the countries which can use their good offices must use that and try and bring Iran to a negotiating table. Yet another war in the Middle East will unleash crisis of such magnitude which will be very difficult to be tackled and stability in this region will be a distant dream.
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