United States invaded Afghanistan with the declared objective of fighting al Qaeda and the terrorists perceived to be operative in the area. US declared a war on terror and occupied Afghanistan defeating Taliban and replacing them with a government under Hamid Karzai.
Soviet Union disintegrated in 1992 and eight countries of the Caucasus and central Asia gained independence, i.e. Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. Most of these countries distanced themselves from Russia and opened up to the American influence because of the fear of Russian domination even after independence. Some of them notably Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan have allowed American military bases on its soil, i.e. Uzbekistan at Chanabad and Kyrgyzstan at Manas. Airbase at Manas is the largest prompting Russia to open its own at Kant, just 35 miles away from American base at Manas, which is the first by Russia since the cold war? Tajikistan is on the other hand firmly under Russian influence with over 20,000 Russian troops stationed there. India too is establishing a military foothold in Tajikistan as well as China which is intensifying its military and economic ties with the CAR states undertaking joint military exercises with Kazakhstan. Iran is warming up to these states too with a view to thwarting American designs in the area. Add to this the Russian determination to keep Georgia under stress by fanning separatist sentiments in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Ajaria. Suddenly the whole area is under a lot of activity. Jostling for power and influence has started in real earnest.
"Besides being a route for oil and gas and itself being rich in mineral wealth and may be gas too Afghanistan provides America the place and the opportunity to keep a close and watchful eye on China , the would be superpower of the 21st century."
The question is why? The answer lies in the geographical location of these countries. Five of the central Asian Republics (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan) as well as Russia and Iran surround the Caspian Sea which sits on the world's biggest untapped fossil fuel resources, principally oil and gas. The estimate of fuel and natural gas on the shores and at the bottom of the Caspian Sea is up to 110 billion barrels of oil and about 463 trillion cubic feet of fuel and natural gas. Besides that Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan alone could have130 billion barrels of oil which will make it the second largest after Saudi Arabia which has 262 billion barrels.
United States invaded Afghanistan with the declared objective of fighting al Qaeda and the terrorists perceived to be operative in the area. US declared a war on terror and occupied Afghanistan defeating Taliban and replacing them with a government under Hamid Karzai. It proceeded to bring in a democratic set-up in that country which is traditionally a tribal society fiercely protective of its heritage and way of life. During all these years the US and the Nato forces have dismally failed to bring any semblance of peace and tranquillity there. Instead unrest and instability has increased giving the Americans the pretext to stay on. They have built a large base in Afghanistan and have professed to stay on indefinitely despite the fact that they and the allied forces are loosing their men and getting their military supplies disrupted and attacked. Could this all be for the love of bringing democracy to Afghanistan? No, it can easily be understood that they want to position themselves in an area that overlooks and is a part of this oil and gas rich region. Add to this the geographical location of Afghanistan and the reason will become crystal clear.
Afghanistan shares borders with Pakistan, Iran, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, China and Russia. It can provide a safe route for the Caspian countries oil and gas to the west provided there is peace and stability in Afghanistan and the west has a foothold in the area as well as strong economic alliances there. It is for this reason that the United States has established military presence in these countries and is determined to establish itself in Afghanistan too on long term basis.
Besides being a route for oil and gas and itself being rich in mineral wealth and may be gas too Afghanistan provides America the place and the opportunity to keep a close and watchful eye on China, the would be superpower of the 21st century. She can monitor Russia and India as well from here, even Iran is so close by. One factor that complicates the situation in this region is the rivalry that has erupted between the littoral countries of the Caspian for the division of the oil boom. Debate has started about the status of the Caspian that is the Caspian a lake or a sea. If it were to be considered a lake then the countries ringing it will cut it like a cake and lay claim to that percentage of its oil which its shores area will warrant and if it were to be considered a sea then the international law governing the sharing of its resources will apply. That debate will be decided without reaching dangerous proportions as both Russia and Iran seem to be on one wavelength on this issue and the bonanza is to big to be passed over. What is of more serious nature is the issue of pipelines that would be built to carry the Caspian oil to its clients in the west.
A number of projects are under consideration. Notable among them are two projects, a pipeline from Azerbaijan through Afghanistan and the other from Azerbaijan's capital Baku across the southern Caucasus to Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. China too is aggressively pursuing pipeline plans to transport Kazakh oil to Shanghai thus becoming United State's main rival in the area as China's appetite and need for oil and gas is apparently insatiable to fuel its great economic and industrial requirements. Iran is also entering the fray by offering its own oil network to the Caspian states for a swap of oil policy under which Iran will receive the Caspian oil at its port for its own domestic use and provide same amount of its oil on the other end of its network for onwards transportation. Iran, Pakistan and India too are considering building a pipeline through Pakistan to transport gas from Iran.
This feverish activity can be understood in the context of increased requirement of oil in the world. At present the requirement is 73 million barrels per day which is likely to soar to 90 million barrels per day by the year 2020. America's own crude production is declining by 12 per cent over the next decade. It will have to import two-third of its total energy demands by 2020. China and India are desperately looking for increased energy resources to fuel their tremendous industrial and economic growth. In this scenario the oil and gas of the Caspian Sea gains a lot of importance catapulting this area to a status of serious rivalry with a view to carving out safe and secure areas of influence and presence.
The building of the pipelines has to be done by transnational corporations requiring billions of dollars. The recipients of the benefits are all, i.e. the country where oil or gas is produced, the countries that receive this oil and gas, the countries through which the pipeline travels and of course the transnational giant corporations that prospect this oil and gas. All this can be sorted out through talks and agreements satisfying all the stake holders but of late a new element has come forth with the potential to disrupt it all and create unforeseen problems in the continuous, uninterrupted supply and transportation of oil and gas over long routes of these pipelines. That new element is the rise and preponderance of militant terrorist organisations emerging in the area. These outfits and organisations have either political agendas or religious hue but the common factor is the intense growing resentment they feel against foreign presence on their soils, in particular that of America, and the exploitation of the wealth and resources of these countries by the foreign powers to their benefit and correspondingly to the detriment of the countries where this wealth belongs.
United States invaded Afghanistan with the declared objective of fighting al Qaeda and the terrorists perceived to be operative in the area. US declared a war on terror and occupied Afghanistan defeating Taliban and replacing them with a government under Hamid Karzai. It proceeded to bring in a democratic set-up in that country which is traditionally a tribal society fiercely protective of its heritage and way of life. During all these years the US and the Nato forces have dismally failed to bring any semblance of peace and tranquillity there. Instead unrest and instability has increased giving the Americans the pretext to stay on. They have built a large base in Afghanistan and have professed to stay on indefinitely despite the fact that they and the allied forces are loosing their men and getting their military supplies disrupted and attacked. Could this all be for the love of bringing democracy to Afghanistan? No, it can easily be understood that they want to position themselves in an area that overlooks and is a part of this oil and gas rich region. Add to this the geographical location of Afghanistan and the reason will become crystal clear.
Afghanistan shares borders with Pakistan, Iran, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, China and Russia. It can provide a safe route for the Caspian countries oil and gas to the west provided there is peace and stability in Afghanistan and the west has a foothold in the area as well as strong economic alliances there. It is for this reason that the United States has established military presence in these countries and is determined to establish itself in Afghanistan too on long term basis.
Besides being a route for oil and gas and itself being rich in mineral wealth and may be gas too Afghanistan provides America the place and the opportunity to keep a close and watchful eye on China, the would be superpower of the 21st century. She can monitor Russia and India as well from here, even Iran is so close by. One factor that complicates the situation in this region is the rivalry that has erupted between the littoral countries of the Caspian for the division of the oil boom. Debate has started about the status of the Caspian that is the Caspian a lake or a sea. If it were to be considered a lake then the countries ringing it will cut it like a cake and lay claim to that percentage of its oil which its shores area will warrant and if it were to be considered a sea then the international law governing the sharing of its resources will apply. That debate will be decided without reaching dangerous proportions as both Russia and Iran seem to be on one wavelength on this issue and the bonanza is to big to be passed over. What is of more serious nature is the issue of pipelines that would be built to carry the Caspian oil to its clients in the west.
A number of projects are under consideration. Notable among them are two projects, a pipeline from Azerbaijan through Afghanistan and the other from Azerbaijan's capital Baku across the southern Caucasus to Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. China too is aggressively pursuing pipeline plans to transport Kazakh oil to Shanghai thus becoming United State's main rival in the area as China's appetite and need for oil and gas is apparently insatiable to fuel its great economic and industrial requirements. Iran is also entering the fray by offering its own oil network to the Caspian states for a swap of oil policy under which Iran will receive the Caspian oil at its port for its own domestic use and provide same amount of its oil on the other end of its network for onwards transportation. Iran, Pakistan and India too are considering building a pipeline through Pakistan to transport gas from Iran.
This feverish activity can be understood in the context of increased requirement of oil in the world. At present the requirement is 73 million barrels per day which is likely to soar to 90 million barrels per day by the year 2020. America's own crude production is declining by 12 per cent over the next decade. It will have to import two-third of its total energy demands by 2020. China and India are desperately looking for increased energy resources to fuel their tremendous industrial and economic growth. In this scenario the oil and gas of the Caspian Sea gains a lot of importance catapulting this area to a status of serious rivalry with a view to carving out safe and secure areas of influence and presence.
The building of the pipelines has to be done by transnational corporations requiring billions of dollars. The recipients of the benefits are all, i.e. the country where oil or gas is produced, the countries that receive this oil and gas, the countries through which the pipeline travels and of course the transnational giant corporations that prospect this oil and gas. All this can be sorted out through talks and agreements satisfying all the stake holders but of late a new element has come forth with the potential to disrupt it all and create unforeseen problems in the continuous, uninterrupted supply and transportation of oil and gas over long routes of these pipelines. That new element is the rise and preponderance of militant terrorist organisations emerging in the area. These outfits and organisations have either political agendas or religious hue but the common factor is the intense growing resentment they feel against foreign presence on their soils, in particular that of America, and the exploitation of the wealth and resources of these countries by the foreign powers to their benefit and correspondingly to the detriment of the countries where this wealth belongs.
"Besides this fact, another factor is that these countries are all ruled by despotic dictatorial governments where erstwhile communist rulers continue to rule despite independence after Soviet Union's disintegration. Their methods are the same and the people at large remain impoverished, unprovided for and exploited with hardly any rights and privileges of a free independent country."
Besides this fact, another factor is that these countries are all ruled by despotic dictatorial governments where erstwhile communist rulers continue to rule despite independence after Soviet Union's disintegration. Their methods are the same and the people at large remain impoverished, unprovided for and exploited with hardly any rights and privileges of a free independent country. The rulers here treat their people as vassals and run their countries like personal fiefdoms or khanates. The bonanza that the exploration and production of oil will bring here will benefit the dictators personally and their closet few to the general impoverishment. This is a fact that wherever such wealth has been prospected, be it the Arabian emirates of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, other countries of Asia and even the oil-producing countries of the south American continent and Africa the governments there are either undemocratic or autocratic, dictatorial or dynastic. This is so because the West, in particular America, feels comfortable dealing with a dynasty or a dictator or an autocratic outfit which sits in power in these countries. Whatever be the protestations of America it feels it convenient and beneficial to deal with undemocratic governments rather than dealing with undemocratic responsible governments where issues of national importance and great potential are debated, discussed and decided to safeguard and protect national interests.
One of the most crucial country in the Caspian area is Georgia where a fierce struggle is going on between the pro-west government and the separatist movements in some parts of the country with active support from Russia which is now trying to exert its influence in the States of erstwhile Soviet Union. Already the Chechens are using the pipelines as a potential target to attack and sabotage in their war against the Russians. Even in Pakistan the gas pipeline is a potent target of the Balchi elements that are struggling for their own political agenda. Building gigantic pipelines to transport oil and gas to fuel the economic and industrial progress of the west and other emerging players will make the battle fierce and potently dangerous. But in their quest for energy the superpowers are oblivious of these dangers or feign ignorance. Whatever be the attitude the world will becomes increasingly more vulnerable to disruption and sabotage. Let sanity prevail and a more equitable dispensation emerge that safeguards and protects the rights of the oil-producing countries and improve the common lot of the peoples there otherwise the danger of a tremendous disaster will remain a real possibility.
The next few years will witness new great game emerging in the area catapulting the region to a status that could either bring prosperity all around or be the next battlefield between the superpowers and their client or allied states. But this time it will not remain localised. It will engulf the entire world and spell dome for all. The solution lies in devising a world order that is based on fair play, justice and the sharing of the wealth of the world for the benefit of all, in particular to the benefit of the peoples that own this wealth.
Shall America of the 21st century pay heed to it and concentrate hard on winning minds and hearts rather than act abrasively and arrogantly towards the less-developed world where the future sources of energy and wealth lie? In the answer to this question lies the peace and tranquillity of this region and the world at large.
One of the most crucial country in the Caspian area is Georgia where a fierce struggle is going on between the pro-west government and the separatist movements in some parts of the country with active support from Russia which is now trying to exert its influence in the States of erstwhile Soviet Union. Already the Chechens are using the pipelines as a potential target to attack and sabotage in their war against the Russians. Even in Pakistan the gas pipeline is a potent target of the Balchi elements that are struggling for their own political agenda. Building gigantic pipelines to transport oil and gas to fuel the economic and industrial progress of the west and other emerging players will make the battle fierce and potently dangerous. But in their quest for energy the superpowers are oblivious of these dangers or feign ignorance. Whatever be the attitude the world will becomes increasingly more vulnerable to disruption and sabotage. Let sanity prevail and a more equitable dispensation emerge that safeguards and protects the rights of the oil-producing countries and improve the common lot of the peoples there otherwise the danger of a tremendous disaster will remain a real possibility.
The next few years will witness new great game emerging in the area catapulting the region to a status that could either bring prosperity all around or be the next battlefield between the superpowers and their client or allied states. But this time it will not remain localised. It will engulf the entire world and spell dome for all. The solution lies in devising a world order that is based on fair play, justice and the sharing of the wealth of the world for the benefit of all, in particular to the benefit of the peoples that own this wealth.
Shall America of the 21st century pay heed to it and concentrate hard on winning minds and hearts rather than act abrasively and arrogantly towards the less-developed world where the future sources of energy and wealth lie? In the answer to this question lies the peace and tranquillity of this region and the world at large.
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